Downward Sloping Trendline Break Outs

The SPX has recently broken out from its 2022 downward sloping trendline. I decided to review the last 100 years of data to spot similar breaks outs. Here’s what I discovered. There have been several failed breaks — in 1940, 2002 and 2008 — that actually resulted in the SPX price reaching a new low. In all of those cases, the price started to fade almost immediately after the break outs happened. In cases when the price didn’t fade and continued moving higher, it eventually reached new ATHs.

So, here’s the current break out. And below, I am posting examples of the successful and failed break outs from the last 100 years. All charts are based on weekly candles.

2023 Break Out

Breakouts that led to new ATHs







Breakouts that failed




5 thoughts

  1. Very nice research. I note the gradient of the slope is quite indicative. of the ones with a steeper slope, 4/5 made lower lows. Of the ones that made a higher high, all made higher highs but one.

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